Bayo Fasuwon

December 2023 is here! One expects to hear the dedicated songs of the month, (heralding the birth of our Lord Jesus Christ) from the stores, the media, schools and churches. Normally, December is ‘the season to be jolly’. It is the last month of the year, and a time to take individual, collective and national stock. For most, it is a time to think about the year 2023, document their lessons and plan for the coming year. Maybe due to the climate change or the activities of the year, 2023 seems to be on the dash, fast and full of intrigues.

The economic challenges, though tough, could not erode the Naija spirit, hence the belief that ‘man no die, man no rotten’ (until you visit hospitals). So, no matter the tide, and storm, as long as the Nigerian is alive, there is hope. We strongly believe that ‘to whom is joined to the living, there is hope’ and ‘this hope does not put one to shame’.   So as Nigerians take stock and are sweeping the dirt of 2023 in bits, they look up into 2024 with undisguised hope. A hope that things would be better in the new year. When efforts had failed to yield the expected dividends of democracy, and the cost of living is hitting the roofs with no succour, all they can do is to hope for a better and greater tomorrow. Nigerians cannot but hope because this is the only good that the leaders (politicians) sold to all during the build up to the elections. The hope that pipe borne water would run in every home; the hope that the mighty dollar would crash before the tiny stones of the naira; the hope that electricity would be available, reachable and affordable; the hope that our health institutions would prolong the years of the weary; that security would be tighter; food would be plenty; politicians would sacrifice and cater for the masses; there would be millions of newly created jobs and there would be no need to ‘JAPA’. That was the hope, and that hope is still very much alive, though dim.

In the spirit of hope, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, possibly in a bid to resurrect the spirit of the dashed hope of 1993 is set to begin his administration with his homegrown ideas of governance and development. Given the relationship wth the grassroots, and his eyes and ears being opened to the cries of many, had christened his budget as ‘Budget of Renewed Hope’. The name suggests that he realises that Nigerians had been hoping against hope for so long, and that the removal of the fuel subsidy or rather conduit pipe of corruption, had inadvertently botched the hope of many Nigerians leading to depression, upsurge in crime, poor living conditions, losses of job and relationships. Thus, armed with the magic wand, PBAT is telling all and sundry that this budget is to renew the hope of survival.

 So just like the Super Eagles whose game outcomes infuriate fans, but always insist that they would qualify for major tournaments and like his campaign theatrics, he is telling Nigerians, ‘E lo fokan bale’, meaning ‘relax’. By this budget of hope renewal, we are being told that our tomorrow shall be greater than today. But what does this budget portend. Thus, “…2024 Appropriation has been themed the Budget of Renewed Hope. The proposed budget seeks to achieve job-rich economic growth, macro-economic stability, a better investment environment, enhanced human capital development, as well as poverty reduction and greater access to social security.”

In order to achieve this, government seeks to earn 65.8% than previous revenue. However, this increase is based on the assumption that the crude oil price would not go lower than $77.86 per barrel and that crude oil thieves, OPEC and good accountability would also allow the country to produce the projected 1,78million barrels per day estimates of our crude oil.

Beyond this major financier of the nation’s economy, it is certain that this government would have to fight corruption, block loopholes and ensure that other mineral resources of the nation are legally mined and appropriately sold. Beyond that, the hope may become a mirage if the agriculture sector lacked the necessary catalysts to boost production for national consumption and export. Also, with the exchange rate of the dollarized economy projected at N 750 to a dollar, it seems that government though being realistic, has solid progammes in place to prevent the upsurge in the cost of the dollar.

This would be possible though, if the importation of foreign goods is reduced, and local industries are encouraged and supported to produce income friendly import substituted goods. In the absence or under-attainment of these, Nigerians should brace up for a high tax regime come 2024. So, bank loans would be expected to attract higher interests, while interest on savings may reduce. Government services are also expected to come at higher cost, thereby making a mockery of the projected 21.5% inflation rate.

Well, only boardroom politics and pacification tactics may prevent labour unions from making threats of or embark on actual strikes in the first quarter of 2024. This is due to the fact that higher costs of living accompanied by government’s intention to give action towards any form of enhanced minimum wage awaits the second quarter of the year.  Tough times, until hope materializes may await salary earners in the beginning of next year. Except the minimum wage is replaced with living wage, the purchasing power of statutory wage earners would be grossly reduced. However, government seems to infer that the informal sector may have access to funds, due to her projected expenditures. Expenditure projection rose by 10.3% to N27.5 trillion from the 2023 revised budget. Thus, with Capital expenditure being 31.6% and, recurrent 36.1%, there is the expectation that there would be more money in circulation, thereby creating wealth mostly in the informal sector.

With debt servicing at 30%, it implies that government seeks to develop at a faster rate, while servicing her debt. That percentage however seems to indicate that government’s debt servicing is more focused on paying the interests of loans than in defraying the loans. If the capital and recurrent expenditures are however strategic and development oriented, the country may yet generate revenues that would aid in loan repayment as well as prevent more borrowings. A deficit budget however points the nation in the direction of more borrowing. If the nation can reduce the penchant for borrowing, the nation may yet have a better hope.

It is not all gloom. The Budget of Renewed Hope is sending a message to Nigerians that this government is poised to embrace frugality, accountability and development. Let us hang in there, as the rope of hope is long and strong.

To be continued.