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Insecurity and 2023 general elections

By Adedotun Ajayi

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Against last minute change in plans, the general elections will hold in Nigeria on February 23, 2023, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC. The election is for the offices of the president and Vice President , members of House of Representatives and Senate. Around 84 million Nigerian registered voters will vote for their respective candidates in the coming elections.
Since the independence era, elections in Nigeria have been characterized by high scale electoral malpractices, money politics, electoral violence and use of ethno-religious divide to influence the voting patterns of the electorate.
Electoral violence is one of the strategies employed by some desperate politicians during electioneering period. They are most often in the habit of sponsoring unemployed youths and illiterates to assault their perceived political opponents with a view to cowing them and manipulating election results to their own advantage.
Concerns are being raised in some quarters about the likelihood of electoral violence in the forthcoming elections . This could worsen the already fragile security situation in the country. The Boko Haram insurgency, banditry, herdsmen, unknown gunmen, kidnappers, these groups pose serious challenges to the 2023 elections.
The election will take place amidst worsening insecurity, a deteriorating economic situation compounded by the impact of COVID-19, increased poverty levels and growing rate of unemployment.
While Nigeria was able to recover from the pandemic-induced recession in 2020 following a fall in oil prices and a general lull in business activities, the cost of living has grown rapidly.
The Nigeria Bureau of Statistics recorded the highest inflation rate in five years in March 2021 at 18.17% (year-on-year). Food inflation rose to 22.95% last month, compared to 21.79% in the previous month.
These economic realities are worsen by the spike in poverty and unemployment, a trajectory that has made upward social mobility unachievable for the wider population.
According to the World Poverty Clock, close to half of the population (43% or about 88 million Nigerians) live in extreme poverty, with youth unemployment rate recorded at 42.4%.
In the past two years, insecurity has spread beyond the North East and the Niger Delta regions. Nigeria is becoming increasingly volatile following increased attacks instigated by terrorist groups, bandits, as well as “unknown gunmen”.
Kidnappings in Nigeria is becoming a lucrative business so to say, it has reached a crisis point with increased scale and frequency.
An All Progressives Congress (APC) chieftain, Jonathan Vatsa, has raised doubts over the conduct of a general election in 2023 in the country amid the security challenges.
He stated in Minna on May 3 that until the current security situation across the country improves, Nigerians should not expect any election in 2023.
According to the Commissioner for Information and Tourism in former Governor Mu’azu Babangida Aliyu’s administration, if government decides to go ahead with the election amid the worsening security situation across the country, such election will not be credible.
In his statement entitled ‘As the nation bleeds, can Nigerians have credible elections in 2023’, he expressed worry over the country’s plunge into the pond of insecurity, with attendant loss of lives and government seemed to have been overwhelmed.
“No part of this country is safe. People are being killed like flies. They have abandoned their ancestral home for fear and have no hope of returning soon,” he stated.
Vatsa, a former Publicity Secretary of APC in Niger State, believed that until the security problem is addressed and peace returns to towns and villages, any attempt to conduct election in 2023 will amount to deceit.
He, however, advised President Muhammadu Buhari to act fast because “the masses who voted for him in 2015 and 2019 can no longer sleep in their houses; they can no longer go to their farms. The country is bleeding and the poor are mostly affected.”
Olutola Aribigbola, a lawyer in his words said “2023 is still a long time, but I don’t believe so…I believe a lot can happen before then. Before the election that removed Jonathan, we thought elections won’t hold in some parts of the country, but with the help of mercenaries, we saw the gains the military made in just about 4 months. So there are a lot of factors that could change before 2023.
In the words of Napoleon “24 hours is a lot in politics” But with the present demographic conditions I won’t think Elections will hold, Some states are overwhelmed with alot of insecurity situations, terrorists have taken over a lot of communities in the north. Banditry is on the increase now, a lot of regions are facing different security problems. So, if you want to conduct elections in these affected communities, where are the voters?
“People can’t even sleep with two eyes closed, everybody is scared of what is coming, that they do not even know. Before we discuss about the forthcoming elections, I think government should focus on strengthening our security architecture. When people are rest assured that they are safe, they would come out and vote. “
Adedamola Okunade, a legal practitioner, and public speaker, in his words “I think Nigeria’s democracy is in crisis, said I feel is that the 2019 election was supposed to move the country to a higher rung on the democratisation ladder, you know, create a more conducive environment to resolve its many internal conflicts and strengthen its credentials as a leading peacemaker, but instead generated serious new problems that may be pushing it further towards the status of a failed state, I don’t think the 2023 elections will hold unless the situation of the nation change for better, people are hungry and angry, even if the election would hold, there would be a low turnout. The governments are expected to place the wellbeing of their citizens at the top of their policy agenda.
Ayomide Olupona, political scientist, in his words said, “If the issues of insecurity is not tackled, I don’t know how we can hold it together within the next two years. I really don’t know. How can you guarantee tomorrow? South east used to be the safest zone. Today, there is an insurgency within the area. You should be worried. The same thing is happening in the South-west. All of a sudden, there is unrest all over the country. Recently, the governor of Zamfara State said about 35,000 insurgents were in the state. That’s the number of the military size of some countries. If one state has that number, how are we sure that other states don’t have same? We should work and ensure that we don’t just focus on Abuja and leave other parts of the country. With all the things happening, Abuja isn’t safe anymore. We must deal with these issues. We lay the blame at the feet of the government in power, which came into office and promised to tackle insecurity. Six years down the line, it has worsened. We need to tell them to try and fix the mess”

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