By Francis Akinnodi
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An Economist, Elder Fessy Olabode has predicted that the Nigerian manufacturing and trade sectors are likely to remain pressured, on the back of low consumption expenditure and the potential impact of limited access to forex.
He said there are expectations that inflation rate would taper in the second half of 2022 as the pressure on supply side factors ease and the economy adjusts to new electricity tariffs and fuel price regimes.
“We also expect a modest level of monetary tightening by the central bank in 2021 as growth returns and policy shifts from one focused solely on growth to one that also incorporates price stability.”
He said positive oil market forecasts for 2021 and a potential ramp up of oil production by OPEC+ could help raise Nigeria’s oil production by 10-15 per cent as higher oil price provide an upside for revenues.
“The non-oil sectors would continue to recover in 2021 driven primarily by a sustained growth momentum in the Agriculture and Telecommunications sub-sectors. However, growth in the agriculture sector may be slightly moderated by ongoing insecurity in some critical regions of the country.”
He urged government at all levels to look inward to find a lasting solution to oil dependence in Nigeria.
“Nigerian economy is showing a sustained positive growth over the last four quarters since the recession witnessed in 2020, although below the lower than 5.01 per cent recorded in second quarter of 2021 by 0.98 per cent points.
“With key investments in the hospitality, energy and power sectors, agriculture, Nigeria would solve unemployment and generate more revenue.
“Investment in key sectors of the economy would improve lives and transform Nigeria. Businesses would thrive and criminal activities would reduce.”, he said.
