An economist, Dr. Paul Alaje, has warned that Nigeria’s failure to manage its fast-growing population could worsen poverty and inequality.
Speaking on ARISE News on Tuesday, Alaje, chief Economist at SPM Professionals, said the World Bank’s projection that Nigeria’s population will exceed 320 million by 2050 may become reality unless “we need to do a lot of work” to prepare for it.
“Population is neither a curse nor a blessing. It depends on what you do with it,” he said. “We cannot discuss population without discussing available resources and productivity. The three of them must be discussed together.”
Alaje urged the government to draw lessons from China by linking population growth with industrialisation. “A population without productivity and abundant resources is useless. To make our population useful, we must learn from China,” he said.
Comparing Nigeria’s economy to its population, he noted: “When you look at Nigeria’s GDP at about $245 billion and our population of over 237 million, you see that Nigeria will be classified among poor nations.”
He advised that Nigeria pursue both population control and productivity growth, adding, “My option would be the third, increase resources, improve productivity, and deliberately curtail population.”
On economic targets, Alaje said, “To achieve the $1 trillion economy target, we need to grow by about 17% year-on-year in GDP. But our current growth rate is between 3% and 4%, so we are far off.”
He also called for a new national census, saying, “The last holistic census was done in 2005 or 2006. Since then, what we’ve been running are estimates… It’s important that we come up with another census because this affects how resources are shared.”
Alaje lamented that although Nigeria is generating employment across sectors, the real economic benefits are flowing abroad. He noted that “Nigeria’s economy is creating jobs in manufacturing, agriculture, and services, but most of the jobs are not in Nigeria. The equipment, devices, and platforms we use daily are all produced abroad,” he said.
He therefore urged unity among leaders to boost local production, “What we must do is bring manufacturing into Nigeria. Federal and subnational governments must agree, irrespective of party or religion, that we want to develop,” he said.
He also urged the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria to take a more active role in driving industrial growth, warning that “until this is done, we will continue to see population as a burden.”
Concluding, Alaje stressed that Nigeria’s economic future rests on strengthening its manufacturing base. “In the structure of our economy, services dominate, followed by agriculture, while manufacturing takes a tiny share. We need to expand that manufacturing base significantly. Once that happens, Nigeria’s economy can truly be liberated,” he said