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Thursday, August 11, 2022

Nigeria under the lens of political theories

Bayo  Fasuwon

The events of the year 2021 in Nigeria have left many speechless, and amazed. The news churned out through orthodox and unorthodox channels have left little smiles on the lips of many. While the issues surrounding the COVID 19, and the eventual lift of the lockdown brought issues as more knowledge about the virus were unveiled, the discovery of the DELTA variant and now OMICRON has left bitter tastes in the mouth of many. Then the issues surrounding the 2023 elections, the possibilities of Tinubu’s emergence as Presidential candidate and the morbid ambition of Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State. Then the issues of ritualistic murders in churches, streets, hotels and sewages came to fore. While some of these murders were attributed to the search for power, others were attributed to the quest for wealth, and some others accidental. Then the issues of students rioting, beating up teachers; coupled with various acts of terrorism across our fatherland. The question is why these?
The conspiracy theory explains that when events occurs there exists internal and external collaborators who seek to benefit from such, often times, conflictual events. In the case of the COVID 19, there are insinuations that even the vaccines were meant to control the world population. So, rather than being a natural or accidental phenomenon, it was in fact a conspiracy which however did not achieve its aim in Africa. The sun Saharan Africans surprisingly did not get wiped out as predicted by European scientists, so little wonder that the OMICRON variant, which was not Africa originated is being loud mouthed as being an African spread variant. That may need further research to validate and or invalidate. However, given the financial beneficiaries of COVID 19, yours truly is proposing another conspiracy that may point to the fact that vaccine or no vaccines, COVID may not end soon. As long as specific pharmaceutical companies are making monopolistic earnings, the virus would only be weakened and not eliminated. The weakened virus however, in order to survive would continue to undergo mutations that would be difficult to contain. Many transit countries are already making foreign earnings from COVID tests and strategies, and as such would not want an end. When disease becomes business, then beneficiaries would conspire to continue the flow, until it is realized that the Earth is the loser of the conspiracies. But how true is this theoretical postulation?
Aside the issue of COVID 19, conspiracy theory may also open our eyes to the reason for the unending successes of Bandits in their acts of murders, kidnaps, arson and ransom taking. The high-level corruption unraveled at the military suggests that military personnel do conspire, due to the gains of war, with bandits for the unending war to continue to their advantages. As the insurgency abides, so is more money available for looting. On the other hand, conspiracy between those against the success of the Buhari led administration and rampaging blood sucking militias also explains why the end may not be in sight for banditry and insurgency until the end of his administration. For all these, the answer is simple, unravel the conspiracy and conspirators, destroy them and the end would come to the outcomes of their conspiracy.
The exhibition of aggressive behaviour by Nigerians of different age and callings have also been explained by the frustration-aggression theory. The theory explains that aggressive behaviours is usually the outcome of frustrations experienced in the course of meeting set goals. Unfortunately, these goals might not be acceptable, but vital for those being frustrated. This explains why secondary school students would go on rampage instead of writing exams; university students would destroy properties of their schools rather than conform to rules and regulations, and smugglers would rather engage in shoot outs with customs officers, than forfeiting their bags of rice. However, when members of the society are frustrated at getting justice, jungle justice becomes the norm.
When certain laws and government prescriptions are interpreted as being ethnic chauvinistic, frustrating the desires of others for self-determinism, guerilla warfare becomes an aggressive tool. Often times, frustration occurs due to the rigidity of governing bodies, even when consultations, flexibility and indestructible compromise could have allayed fears, created a common ground and create an ally out of a perceived enemy. The good book, the Bible insists that fathers should not provoke their children to anger. Therefore, where necessary changes in policies, constitution and even structures need to made in order to address areas of frustrations, such need be done in truth and in deed, and without delay. Frustrations if not well handled would lead to wars of devastations in no distant time.
Would there be another ASUU strike? Would there be another sort of #ENDARS protest? Would there be chaos, protests and or demonstrations in the new year? The Systems theory educates us that as people make demands on the political system, the onus is on the system to bring out acceptable policies that meets such demands. When the policies of government negate peoples’ demands, then demonstrations, strikes and boycotts would be the outcomes. Various associations have made demands on government this year, and government had signed unfulfilled agreements in order to avert a system collapse.
However, as these associations continue to demand for the fulfillment of government’s Memoranda of Understanding, Agreement and or Action, without success, strikes and demonstrations become inevitable. In many States of the Federation, many workers are faced with a gloomy yuletide season, and the shame of non-payment of accommodations and children fees, due to unpaid salary. Governors, while boating of their capital projects have left the producers of the commonwealth to languish in poverty, shame and sickness due to unpaid salaries. These Governors have forgotten that payment of is neither an act of love nor a privilege, but a duty of integrity. Therefore, the Systems theory explains that the failure of the political system to meet the demands (often legitimate) of the people suggests that those in power are not capable of leading and have thus lost the trust of the people. Furthermore, their legitimacy is no longer valid, and the citizens being frustrated can conspire to carry out actions that makes the political system ungovernable, the height of this would be civil unrest that may sound the death knell of a fragile political system.
In view of these theories, government has to wake up, listen to the cries of the citizens, prioritise their welfare that determines their existence and loyalty in order to have peace and prosperity in the land. Until the people become the focus of the government in power, these negative postulations of these theories remain as potent as Nostradamus’s prophecy.

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